Despite mounting geopolitical pressure and calls from the West to reduce reliance on Russian energy, India continues to source the majority of its crude oil from Russia. Recent trade data reveals that Russia maintained its spot as India’s top oil supplier in September 2025, accounting for over 34% of total imports — even as overall purchase volumes saw a slight dip.
According to Kpler’s preliminary trade data, India imported about 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in September. Out of this, 1.6 million bpd came from Russia — making it the largest single supplier for the third consecutive year since 2022.
📊 Crude Import Snapshot – September 2025
| Country | Import Volume (bpd) | Market Share (%) | Trend vs. Previous Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 1.6 million | 34% | 🔻 Slightly Lower (-160k bpd) |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 881,115 | 19% | 🔺 Stable |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 603,471 | 13% | 🔺 Slight Increase |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | 594,152 | 12% | 🔺 Steady |
| 🇺🇸 United States | 206,667 | 4% | 🔺 Marginal Rise |
💡 Why Indian Refiners Still Prefer Russian Oil
Energy experts say Russian crude continues to be an economical and strategic choice for Indian refiners.
- Attractive Discounts: Even after narrowing, Russian crude still trades below global benchmark prices.
- High GPW Margins: Refiners benefit from better gross product worth — boosting profitability.
- Steady Supply Chain: Russian barrels have been deeply integrated into India’s refining and logistics system since 2022.
- Energy Security: Diversification efforts are ongoing, but Russia remains the backbone of India’s crude basket.
“Russian barrels remain among the most economical feedstock options for Indian refiners,” says Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler.
⚙️ Refiners Focus on Balanced Sourcing
While Russia continues to dominate, Indian refiners are not standing still. They’re gradually diversifying their import mix to enhance long-term energy security.
Emerging trends include:
- Increasing imports from Iraq, UAE, and the US
- Exploring new deals in Africa and Latin America
- Maintaining term contracts with Russia while experimenting with spot market flexibility
Still, analysts note that rewiring supply chains takes time.
“India isn’t stepping away from Russian supplies anytime soon. Contracts are long-term, logistics are optimized, and replacing Russian barrels isn’t simple,” Ritolia added.
🔍 What Lies Ahead (Q4 2025 Outlook)
Experts forecast that Russia’s crude flows to India will stay steady between 1.6–1.8 million bpd through the end of 2025. Discounts might rise slightly if Western buyers tighten sanctions or market demand softens.
At the same time, the resumption of northern Iraqi exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port could impact market share, potentially diverting more Russian barrels toward Asia — especially India and China.
📈 Key Takeaways
- 🇷🇺 Russia remains India’s No. 1 oil supplier despite global pressure.
- ⚖️ India imported 1.6 million barrels/day from Russia in September 2025.
- 💰 Discounts continue to make Russian crude highly attractive for Indian refiners.
- 🌍 India’s diversification strategy focuses on balance, not replacement.
- 🔮 Russian oil imports expected to remain stable through Q4 2025.
🧩 Expert Insight
India’s strategy reflects pragmatism over politics — focusing on affordability, reliability, and flexibility. Until alternative energy sources or suppliers can match Russia’s economics and logistics, Moscow will remain a crucial player in India’s energy landscape.
